The quantum threat to global cybersecurity is advancing faster than previously expected, and organizations across every sector should take note. A recent survey reveals a meaningful shift in expected timelines, with the likelihood of a cryptographically-relevant quantum computer (CRQC) capable of breaking today's encryption now estimated at 28–49% within 10 years, and 51–70% within 15 years. For organizations planning their transition to quantum-safe cryptography, understanding this evolving timeline is essential.
Our 2025 Quantum Threat Timeline Report, developed in collaboration with the Global Risk Institute, draws on the insights of 26 globally recognized quantum computing experts to assess the pace of quantum advancement and its potential impact on cryptographic systems. This latest edition highlights a growing recognition that the quantum threat timeline is compressing with significant recent progress in quantum error correction and logical qubit storage. Regulatory bodies are responding accordingly, with NIST, Canada, and the European Union all moving to mandate PQC adoption across critical systems.
While quantum-safe cryptographic standards are now available, the transition to these systems remains complex and must be approached strategically. This report underscores the importance of proactive cryptographic modernization to avoid rushed implementations and protect against long-term risks, including "Harvest Now, Decrypt Later" attacks. Those responsible for cyber-risk must act now to ensure resilience in a post-quantum world.
